Real Madrid’s Likely UEFA Champions League Opponent Predicted by AI
Supercomputer gives only a 0.038% chance of another clash with Manchester City as draw approaches
Real Madrid secured their place in the Champions League Round of 16 after defeating Benfica 2–1 in the playoff second leg. Now, with the draw scheduled for Friday at noon, the Spanish giants await their next opponent — and they have only two possible rivals: Manchester City or Sporting CP.
Artificial intelligence has already weighed in. According to a supercomputer analysis by Perplexity AI, the probability of Madrid facing Manchester City for a fifth consecutive time in the competition is an astonishingly low 0.038%.
History suggests caution, but AI favors Sporting
The two clubs have crossed paths repeatedly in recent years — four straight knockout ties and six encounters across seven seasons — including City’s visit to the Santiago Bernabéu during the group phase last December. Despite this history, the AI model predicts it is far more likely that Sporting CP will be Madrid’s next opponent.
That scenario would send the Spanish side back to Lisbon for the third time this season. Madrid already played Benfica there during the league phase and again in the playoff first leg.
Key dates and venues
The Round of 16 ties will take place in mid-March:
- First leg: March 10 or 11 (at the Bernabéu, as Madrid are not seeded)
- Second leg: March 17 or 18 (away — either in Lisbon or Manchester)
The draw will also map out the entire knockout path, including quarterfinals and semifinals, leading to the final in Budapest on May 30.
Inside Madrid: Expecting City anyway
Despite the AI prediction, many inside the Madrid dressing room believe fate will pair them with City yet again — as happened in 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.
Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois hinted at that expectation after the Benfica win, suggesting that City are the opponent everyone assumes will emerge. The English side, managed by Pep Guardiola, has become Madrid’s most frequent rival on the road to the trophy.
Sporting CP: A dangerous alternative
If the draw instead produces Sporting CP, Madrid will still face a formidable challenge. The Portuguese club advanced directly to the Round of 16 without needing a playoff and won all their home matches in the group stage, defeating teams such as Paris Saint-Germain and Olympique de Marseille.
Domestically, Sporting — coached by Rui Borges — sit second in the Portuguese league, just four points behind leaders FC Porto.
Whether it is Manchester City or Sporting CP, Real Madrid know that the path to another European crown will demand overcoming elite opposition — regardless of what the algorithms predict.
